Energy Markets
BETACrude oil, natural gas, power, and renewables
| Country | Quota (mb/d) | Actual (mb/d) | Compliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 9.00 | 8.98 | 99.8% |
| Iraq | 4.00 | 4.18 | 95.7% |
| UAE | 2.91 | 2.89 | 99.3% |
| Kuwait | 2.57 | 2.55 | 99.2% |
| Russia | 9.00 | 9.14 | 98.4% |
| Iran | Exempt | 3.20 | Exempt |
Supply Dynamics
OPEC+ supply discipline is providing a floor under crude prices around $75-78/bbl. US shale production is growing at a moderate 300-400kb/d pace — less aggressive than prior cycles. The WTI-Brent spread is expected to narrow as US export infrastructure expands. Near-term upside catalysts include Middle East risk premium re-pricing and Chinese demand recovery.
Demand Outlook
Global oil demand is expected to grow 1.2mb/d in 2024, led by aviation, petrochemicals, and emerging market mobility. EV penetration is beginning to dent gasoline demand in Europe, though the impact is modest at under 0.3mb/d. Natural gas demand faces headwinds from mild weather and high European storage, but LNG export growth into Asia provides structural support for US gas prices.